A study published in the Lancet, and reported on the Care Home web site, predicts that an extra 71,215 UK care home places will be needed within the next eight years as life expectancy and care needs rise.
In addition, almost 4.5 million people will require care at home.
Due to increasing life expectancy, there will be an extra 190,000 older people with medium care needs in 2025 (883,000 in total), and 163,000 more with high care needs (813,000 in total), when compared to 2015.
While half of these people will continue to live at home, researchers believe an extra 71,215 care home spaces will be needed by 2025.
Professor Carol Jagger from Newcastle University, one of the lead authors of the paper says:
“Life expectancy increases and a rise in the number of extra years older people live with major care needs has almost doubled– increasing from 1.1 years to 2.4 years for men and from 1.6 years to three years for women. Though most of these extra years are spent with low dependency, older men and women are spending around one year more requiring 24 hour care. This finding, along with the increasing number of older adults with higher rates of illness and disability is contributing to the current social care crisis.”
Between 1991 and 2011, life expectancy rose for men (from 77 to 82 years) and women (from 81 to 85 years). As life expectancy increases so does the need for care.
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